Interesting commentary from @tylercowen on cyclical interactions in the economy:
In a piece I already have linked to, Binyamin Appelbaum makes a point in passing that I think deserves further comment:
The new paper, like others of its genre, basically requires belief in a big coincidence: that a short-term catastrophe happened to coincide with the intensification of long-term trends — that the economy crashed at the moment that it was already beginning a gradual descent.
I view this somewhat differently. Very often trends accumulate, often without much notice, and then a cyclical event causes that trend to explode into full view. Such a coincidence of cycle and trend is very often no accident and in fact the two are closely related.